2009 Preseason Rankings in Review

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2009 Preseason Rankings in Review

Post by Free Bagel » Mon May 10, 2010 3:42 pm

2009-2010 Rankings in Review

As you know, every year I release some typically inaccurate and off-base preseason rankings. Don't worry, I'll still be throwing them out there for everyone to prove my lack of pyschic ability this year as well, but first let's take a look back at 2009's rankings and see how they turned out. We'll beging by going team by team and picking apart my projections.

Here is the link to the 2009 rankings, if you'd like to see what I had specifically to say about each team: viewtopic.php?t=2370

Micanopy Mudslides
2009 Present Ranking: A
2009 Future Ranking: A+
2009 Predicted Finish: 2
2009 Actual Finish: 1

What I said in 2009: Studs at every position, but for the first time in years some issues with running back depth.

The depth issues ended up being no real issue at all with Beanie Wells coming on strong at the end of the year and the surprising Cadillac Williams filling in nicely on a couple bye weeks. It’s rare that a team gets lucky enough to have basically no true busts, but that’s the kind of luck this team stumbled across last year with their player’s “down” years still providing numbers like 1700/17 (Peterson) and 1100/13 (Fitzgerald).

The Mudslides rode that to a 12-3 season, finishing #1 in the regular season and taking home the championship in the post season, and are still looking as strong going forward as they were before.

2009 Best Move Prediction: John Carlson for 2dd is going to end up being a steal.
Result: Well, he hasn’t exactly turned into a superstar but he’s a solid backup on this squad and could be a starter for half the league.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: They mortgaged a bit of their present to get younger at a couple positions, basically moving Moss/Westbrook for Fitzgerald/Rivers
Result: Fitzgerald/Rivers were better even in the short-term than Moss/Westbrook, and definitely have more value going forward as well. This probably should have been a “best move” prediction instead.

2009 Offseason Grade: B
Result: See above. The offseason looked a bit questionable, but ended up being hugely successful.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: B+
I think pretty much anyone could have seen foreseen this team having another very successful season just by looking at the roster, so even though I did predict that I’m going to bump this rating down to a B+ on the grounds of that, as well as the big miss on the “worst move” prediction.

Brentwood Beavers
2009 Present Ranking: B-
2009 Future Ranking: B+
2009 Predicted Finish: 8
2009 Actual Finish: 10

What I said in 2009: it looks like it may be a boom or bust situation from week to week as far as the Beavers’ running backs go.

Well, that was pretty much right on, although things were a little light on the “boom” outside of Stewart late and Turner early. For the umpteenth straight year the preseason rankings questioned the shakiness the Beavers had short term at RB and once again it was an issue for the team. I think the toughest pill for this team to swallow may not be the 10th place finish, but rather the 0-6 division record, which made their impressive 5-2 out of division record go by almost unnoticed by many.

2009 Best Move Prediction: Lance Moore for 2dd is pretty ridiculous
Result: Apparently there was a reason for this.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: Picking up Kerry Collins only to drop him later.
Result: DDs out the window.

2009 Offseason Grade: C+
Result: The Beavers were the first team to REALLY horde DDs for in-season bidding, and they rode it to great success in 2008. In 2009 everybody copied them though, and when the Beavers should have spent (on perhaps the best RFA year we’ll see for some time) they again held. The only problem was that this time a lot of other people held too and that advantage they held by hoarding in 2008 was not there in 2009.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: A
Pretty close to spot on, right down the line.

Hollywood Hookers of Los Angeles
2009 Present Ranking: C+
2009 Future Ranking: B
2009 Predicted Finish: 10
2009 Actual Finish: 4

What I said in 2009: This team definitely has the potential to be a top team this year if things work out, but there are just too many major question marks here for me to give them a higher grade.

This one is going to be tough to rate. I basically said that this team was had no “sure thing” type players but was littered with players that could be great and bring this team to the top. On the one hand, the team did rise to the top as I said they could. On the other hand, they had enough guys bust or semi-bust that I never would have thought they would have done it with all those guys failing.

2009 Best Move Prediction: Even if there were better deals available, landing Witten for 5dd was still a bargain.
Result: Witten had kind of an off year, but was definitely worth 5 DDs.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: I think 12dd for Ocho Cinco was way over his market value this offseason.
Result: Ocho had a decent year. Whether or not his numbers were worth 12dd is really up to the particular owner. For this team, I think they were.

2009 Offseason Grade: D+
Result: My main gripe with the Hookers offseason was in opportunity cost in using an open franchise tag and lots of available DDs on Witten/Ocho with so much talent out there in last year’s RFA. Still, those guys did produce well for the team.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: C-
While I accurately predicted that one or two guys really blowing up could make this team a contender, Jamaal Charles was the guy that carried the team and he wasn’t even on my list of guys that could potentially do it.

Illinois Intimidators
2009 Present Ranking: B
2009 Future Ranking: D
2009 Predicted Finish: 6
2009 Actual Finish: 6

What I said in 2009: This is a team that will need DeAngelo Williams to pick up right where he left off at his record breaking pace last year in order to go the distance.

The Intimidators started hot when DeAngelo was playing well. As soon as he came back down to Earth though, so did the team, as predicted. LT produced some decent fantasy numbers as a last ditch hurrah, but ultimately this team that has made the playoffs in two consecutive years may now be even worse than the ‘D’ future ranking they received last offseason.

2009 Best Move Prediction: Mcnabb for 4dd is a steal, especially with Cutler becoming a bit of an unknown in Chicago
Result: Mcnabb definitely outplayed his 4dd pricetag, and he was definitely needed with Cutler playing all Grossman-like.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: Franchising Addai when there were so many 0-year studs out there for cheap.
Two of the five 0-year studs (Westbrook, Portis) ended up as busts, but there was still some real talent that got passed up on here.

2009 Offseason Grade: B+
Result: I really liked the Mcnabb, Gonzo, and Jamal Lewis signings. Two of the three worked out great.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: A
Pretty much spot-on right down the list.

Toronto Mookies
2009 Present Ranking: A+
2009 Future Ranking: B+
2009 Predicted Finish: 1
2009 Actual Finish: 3

What I said in 2009: MJD/CJ4.24/TJ may well be the top running back trio in the league right now. There are no holes in this starting lineup.

Understatement of the year right there. There was a lot of discussion about this team being ranked #1 last year over the Mudslides, but I still think it was the right call (for reasons beyond just avoiding the #1 curse for my own team). The Mookies dominated much of the season, they just got a little bit cold at exactly the wrong time. Like the Bears in 2008, I think the 2009 Mookies end the year as another case of the best team falling short of the championship. The way this team could make up points quickly was unreal. I remember looking in Gameday at 7:15 with the Mookies down by 80 points and me figuring they had lost for the week and I could gain some ground on them, and then checking back at 7:30 and finding them in the lead after CJ, MJD, and Moss had combined for five 60+ yard plays in the last 15 minutes.

However, their idleness in RFA last year may have cost them that one extra guy that could have taken them all the way to the promised land.

2009 Best Move Prediction: Pittsburgh’s defense for 4dds could pay off big.
Result: I left off the “if you’re an opponent of the Mookies” part of this statement.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: Went a bit overboard with the DD hoarding.
Result: Bingo

2009 Offseason Grade: B
Result: I basically lauded the Mookies for coming away with something decent for their 0 contract year enigma (Moss ended up playing a key role) and criticizing them for not spending enough in free agency. I think both of those were judged properly.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: B+
This gets knocked down from an A to a B+ because they didn’t win it all, but everything else in my 2009 prediction was pretty close to the reality that came.

Colombia Dealers
2009 Present Ranking: B+
2009 Future Ranking: B
2009 Predicted Finish: 4
2009 Actual Finish: 9

What I said in 2009: Is it the end of an era for Tomlinson, and can Reggie Bush actually stay on the field for once?

1. Yes
2. No

The Dealers got off to a shaky start with Tomlinson going down and they never really recovered. The team went into rebuild mode soon after, and actually finished strongly with some surprising performances out of Foster and Harrison, though neither look like much of a hope to carry that momentum forward into next year with both teams bringing in competition in the form of 2nd round rookies.

2009 Best Move Prediction: It took some work, but they were able to finally get a stud WR at a pretty cheap price.
Result: Boldin was solid but unspectacular when healthy. It’s just a shame that the year this team finally finds a semi-reliable #1 WR, the running backs (which had been the Dealers’ strength for years) let them down.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: Roy was a bit on the expensive side.
Result: And also a bit on the crappy side, apparently.

2009 Offseason Grade: B+
Result: The only mistake the Dealers made in the offseason was Roy. The rest of this team’s problems came from some of the team’s former producers who didn’t play up to par.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: D+
I thought this team would remain a contender, but they were out of it pretty early on.

Hokkaido Bears
2009 Present Ranking: A
2009 Future Ranking: B+
2009 Predicted Finish: 3
2009 Actual Finish: 5

What I said in 2009: [The Bears] find themselves entering 2009 as one of the favorites in the league.

The Bears had a good season in 2009, finishing 9-4 with the 5th most points scored and a #4 seed heading into the playoffs, prior to a first round exit. However, this is a team that I had in the same tier as the Mookies and Mudslides, which they clearly were not. The regression of Westbrook, Forte, and the return to normalcy at the QB position (after two straight years of having far and away the #1 QB) were the major culprits.

2009 Best Move Prediction: Take your pick from several great ones, but landing Westbrook and STILL being able to hold onto Pierre on top of that was pretty impressive.
Result: Pierre was indeed valuable, but Westbrook was a flop.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: Marc Bulger doesn't exactly make for the most reliable backup QB.
Result: He wasn’t needed, but he did indeed suck.

2009 Offseason Grade: A+
Result: The death of Brian Westbrook’s fantasy relevance really took this prediction for a tumble. Still, Pierre and Vjax make for quite the coup.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: C+
They only finished two spots (and one playoff game) off of where I predicted, but they were nowhere near the dominant force I thought they’d be.

Cleveland Steamers
2009 Present Ranking: D+
2009 Future Ranking: C+
2009 Predicted Finish: 11
2009 Actual Finish: 8

What I said in 2009: I see a lot of guys that would make good/great #2's, but not good #1's.

That Romulan was one scrappy fella, and he once again finished higher than I predicted barely a star player to show for it. He stuck to his strategy of building depth rather than studs, and once again “consistently solid, but never great” held true. The Kevin Smith injury was a shame because this team was actually looking somewhat decent going forward if he still had that job to himself.

2009 Best Move Prediction: Nabbing Kurt Warner for 4 DDs…
Result: Yep, and he even managed to get an extra 1st round pick out of him when he was no longer needed.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: I really don't understand the Favre signing. 4 DDs was already too much for him, but especially on a team who was spending its last 4 dds, and who already had a better old-age QB to play.
Result: Maybe Romulan IS the only sane one among us, and we all just can’t see it because we’re so crazy. He certainly beat me here.

2009 Offseason Grade: D-
Result: Like I said, after the good deals on the QBs a lot of DDs disappeared without anyone of note coming in. I don’t even remember who they were.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: B
I think this is what I always end up giving myself for Hoplites predictions. I say they’ll suck, and for the most part they do but they somehow end up scrapping together a decent (though still below average) record. I wonder if new owner PCRamrod will provide me with as much material to rip this team in my preseason rankings as Romulan did.

Boston Stranglers
2009 Present Ranking: C
2009 Future Ranking: C+
2009 Predicted Finish: 9
2009 Actual Finish: 12

What I said in 2009: I'm predicting a bit of a fall from glory for the Stranglers this year.

I know “worst to first” and “first to worst” are exciting catch phrases, but it doesn’t usually refer to a team literally going from league champion to dead last in one season. That’s exactly what the Stranglers did though, and while I didn’t quite predict THAT far of a fall I did see a huge dropoff even with the team bringing in almost the exact same lineup it had won the championship with a year before.

2009 Best Move Prediction: Delhomme was a bargain for 1dd, he should bounce back this year.
Result: Uhhhh, let’s never speak of this again.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: All the longshot rookies being signed to long-term deals rather than set as DPs.
Result: They’re mostly just taking up contract space now.

2009 Offseason Grade: D
Result: This grade mostly had to do with the whole offseason being spent on DP players not placed in DP slots, which doesn’t appear to have worked out particularly well as a whole.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: A
When a team trots out the same group of guys it just won a championship with, and you predict they’ll fall to the bottom quarter of the league, and they do, you give yourself a pat on the back. The only thing keeping this from an A+ is that whole Delhomey fiasco aka The Prediction that Shall not be Named.

Maui Flyin Hawaiians
2009 Present Ranking: B
2009 Future Ranking: B
2009 Predicted Finish: 5
2009 Actual Finish: 11

What I said in 2009: the Hooligans look poised for a bounce-back season.

I think I might have been a year early on this prediction. I still can’t believe this team finished 11th though. Some big busts (Portis, Jacobs, Bowe) really let this squad down. We’ll see if new ownership can get this team, which used to be a perennial contender, back on top.

2009 Best Move Prediction: Adding Clinton Portis, even if they overpaid a bit.
Result: No wait, I want this one to be the Prediction that Must not be Named.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: The Hooligans way overpayed for Le'Ron McClain.
Result: Indeed, but at least they also had Rice.

2009 Offseason Grade: B-
Result: I thought they overpaid for Portis, but that he was still a good addition. Turns out he was the reason that this grade should have been much lower than a B-. Moving Bush when he still had some value made things a little bit better though.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: D
Fuck you Mr. Portis.

Dallas WarDawgs
2009 Present Ranking: D
2009 Future Ranking: B-
2009 Predicted Finish: 12
2009 Actual Finish: 7

What I said in 2009: The WarDawgs are definitely making strides in the right direction for the future, but I think they're still a year out from being a contender.

The WarDawgs improved more than I thought they would in the short term, riding the success of Rice and Mendenhall to a decent season. The general idea was still pretty close to being right on though, as they were never really contenders in 2009 but looked poised to make some noise in 2010.

2009 Best Move Prediction: They got a decent price on Lee Evans…
Result: …who sucked.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: Basically paid 4dd for maclin, which I'm not sure was worth it.
Result: Maclin still has more to prove, but so far he looks to be well worth the price tag.

2009 Offseason Grade: B-
Result: The WarDawgs didn’t really do much in the offseason besides draft their rookies, which they hit pretty well on. The only big mistake they made in the offseason was ending up with Greene and Rice on the same contract, meaning they had to give Rice away on the cheap this offseason. Mendenhall/Greene/Jennings/Rice would have been a real nice core.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: B
They were better than I thought they’d be in the short term, but I still had the right idea.

Columbus Capacitors
2009 Present Ranking: B-
2009 Future Ranking: B
2009 Predicted Finish: 7
2009 Actual Finish: 2

What I said in 2009: the Capacitors look ready to get back into the thick of things after taking a year off from the playoffs.

“Aaron Rodgers looks like he may be the next big thing at QB”. “I never thought I’d be saying this, but Cedric Benson is a key pickup for this team”. These two guys combined with Ricky, Wayne, Welker, and Clark made this team an instant contender. Flux is kind of like Romulan on steroids. Whereas Romulan tends to have teams that look awful and turn out to be just really bad, Flux tends to have teams that look just ok and end up being tier 1 championship contenders.

2009 Best Move Prediction: Errr, not a lot to choose from here. Stafford for 2dd is a great gamble.
Result: TBD, though I wasn’t that impressed with him this year.

2009 Worst Move Prediction: Um, I guess I get to pick between the Seahawks as a backup defense or Miles Austin being worth a roster spot. I'll take the latter.
Result: No, the former! Why didn’t I take the former!?!?

2009 Offseason Grade: C
Result: The Capacitors basically sat on their DDs all offseason and I still haven’t seen how this grand master plan is supposed to end. They didn’t spend much during the season either, and the RFA market is pretty dry this year.

Rating for my 2009 Prediction: B
This one is tough to gauge, because everything I said was pretty much dead-on with my predicting their turnaround, yet I still only ranked them 7th. I guess I talked the talk, but didn’t walk the walk, so we’ll knock off one letter grade here.

2008 Division Rankings
1. International
2. National
3. United

Close to correct, but with National and International possibly switched. The National division is quickly becoming the SEC of dyNASTY, as not only did another season pass with no other team getting a 3rd team in the playoffs, but another season passed where the National division did exactly that yet again. They've also had 4 teams play in the last 3 dyNASTY championship games.

2009 Division Winner Predictions
National: Mudslides
International: Mookies
United: Hooligans

2 out of 3

2009 Wildcard Predictions

In total, 4 of 6 playoff teams selected correctly.
dyNASTY overlord

Team Name: Micanopy Mudslides
AIM: Moyer9513

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